Co-convener and lecturer of the Summer
and Ecosystem Services" 2008, Peyresq, France (ALTER-NET).
Co-convener, lecturer and chief tutor of
the Summer School "Trends
in Biodiversity: European Ecosystems and Policy" 2007, Peyresq,
Co-convener, lecturer and chief tutor of
and Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Socio-Economic Aspects"
2006, Peyresq, France (ALTER-NET).
Summer School 2005, Peyresq, France (AVEC).
Seminar at Potsdam
University, summer 2004.
during Vulnerability Summer School 2003, Peyresq, France (AVEC).
of the Seminar
|The planned seminar deals with the vulnerability
of coupled human-enviornment systems to global change. At the beginning
we will give a thorough introduction to the topic. We will then ask students
to prepare seminars on topics related to vulnerability research (see suggestions
below). We will provide appropriate background material and will guide and
support students to read and understand seminal papers recently published
in this growing field of interdisciplinary research. Students are encouraged
to present their own thoughts. They are also free to base their presentations
on additional material of their choosing. We will specifically deal with
the following issues:
In the global change context, vulnerability is the likelihood that a specific
coupled human-environment system may experience harm from exposure to stresses
associated with alterations of societies and the biosphere, accounting for
the process of adaptation. The term coupled human-environment system is
used to highlight the fact that human and environmental systems are part
of an integrated whole. Vulnerability is typically described to be a function
of three overlapping characteristics: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity. Vulnerability assessments include not only the analysis of vulnerability
but also the identification of specific options for stakeholders to reduce
that vulnerability. Stakeholders are people and organizations with specific
interests in the evolution of specific human-environment systems. Given
these definitions, the general objective of vulnerability assessments is
to inform the decision-making of specific stakeholders about options for
adapting to the effects of global change. In this way vulnerability assessments
link directly with the broader aim of sustainable development and sustainability
science, where successful research is measured by not only pure scientific
merit but also by the utility of the resulting products and recommendations.
In the growing community of vulnerability science several methods are used
to assess vulnerability for different systems, to different stressors and
to different outcomes, ranging from loss of recreational opportunities in
a landscape to loss of lives due to starvation.
- the driving forces and processes of environmental changes in Europe;
- the evaluation of ecosystem services provided to society;
- a discussion what a vulnerability assessment, should include, e.g.
evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
- how to involve stakeholders in this process.
- results of different vulnerability assessments.
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The 10 seminar topics suggested below cover the following general subject areas:
Seminar 1: Scenarios of global change - narratives of the future
- The driving forces and processes of environmental changes in Europe
- Ecosystem services provided to society and their evaluation
- The concept of vulnerability. A discussion what a vulnerability assessment, should include, e.g. evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity
- Stakeholder involvement: Communication and decision making in an unpredictable world
- Results of different vulnerability assessments
Seminar 2: Greenhouse gas emissions and environmental change: scenarios of atmospheric composition, climate and sea level rise
- Nakicenovic, N., and R. Swart, editors. 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. (selected section: technical summary)
- Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. 2002. Great Transition - The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. A report of the Global Scenario Group Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston, USA. (selected section: pp. 1-28)
Seminar 3: Socio-economic trends and environmental change: scenarios of population and land use change
- IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge University Press, Shanghai, China.
Nicholls, R. J. 2004. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14:69-86.
- Nicholls, R. J. 2002. Rising Sea Levels: Potential Impacts and Responses. Pages 83-107 in Global Environmental Change. Royal Society of Chemistry.
Seminar 4: Biodiversity and stability
- Reginster, I., and M. Rounsevell. 2003. Land Use Change Scenarios for Europe. LUCC Newsletter No. 9 - Land Use and Land Cover Change - a core project of the IGBP.
- McNeill, J. R. 2001. Something new under the sun: An environmental history of the twentieth-century world. W.W. Norton & Company Inc., New York, NY, USA. (selected section: pp. 212-227)
- Lambin, E. F., H. J. Geist, and E. Lepers. 2003. Dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Tropical Regions. Annual Review of Environmental Resources 28:205-241.
- Southwick, C. H. 1996. Global Ecology in Human Perspective. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, USA. (selected section: pp. 267-281)
- Cohen, J. E. 1996. How many people can the Earth support? W.W. Norton & Company Inc., New York, NY, USA. (selected section: pp. 109-157)
- Cohen, J. E. 2003. Human Population: The Next Half Century. Science 302:1172.
Guest speaker Prof. Dr. Tony Patt on Environmental Economics
- Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, J. A. Foley, C. Folke, and B. Walker. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596.
- Naeem, S. 2002. Biodiversity equals instability? Nature 416:23-24.
- McCann, K. S. 2000. The diversity-stability debate. Nature 405:228-233.
- Wolters, V., W. L. Silver, D. E. Bignell, D. C. Coleman, P. Lavelle, W. H. van der Putten, P. de Ruiter, J. Rusek, D. H. Wall, D. A. Wardle, L. Brussaard, J. M. Dangerfield, V. K. Brown, K. E. Giller, D. U. Hooper, O. Sala, J. Tiedje, and J. A. van Veen. 2000. Effects of global changes on above- and belowground biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems: Interactions and implications for ecosystem functioning. BioScience 50:1089-1098.
Seminar 5: Ecosystem services: a link between ecosystems and humans
Seminar 6: Global change impacts on ecosystems: current observations
- Alcamo, J., and et al. 2003. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: a framework for assessment -- Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington. (selected section: pp.49-84)
- Daily, G. C. 1997. Nature's services. Island Press / Shearwater Books, Washington. (selected sections: pp. 1-19 and 177-252)
Seminar 7: Vulnerability is the probability to be wounded - But what is Global Change Vulnerability?
- Root, T. L., J. T. Price, K. R. Hall, S. H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, and J. A. Pounds. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57-60.
- Parmesan, C., and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.
- Walther, G.-R., E. Post, P. Convey, A. Menzel, C. Parmesan, T. J. C. Beebee, J.-M. Fromentin, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, and F. Bairlein. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395.
- Hughes, L. 2000. Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 15:56-61.
Seminar 8: Stakeholder involvement in scientific assessments: who are the stakeholders? How should stakeholders and scientists work together?
- Schröter, D., C. Polsky, and A. G. Patt. 2004. Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight step approach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. In press.
- Turner, B. L., R. E. Kasperson, P. Matson, J. J. McCarthy, R. W. Corell, L. Christensen, N. Eckley, J. X. Kasperson, A. Luers, M. L. Martello, C. Polsky, A. Pulsipher, and A. Schiller. 2003. A Framework For Vulnerability Analysis In Sustainability Science. Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA 100:8074-8079.
- Moss, R., A. Brenkert, and E. L. Malone. 2000. Measuring Vulnerability: A Trial Indicator Set. in. Pacific Northwest Laboratories.
Seminar 9: Vulnerability: results from environmental ecology
- Clark, W. C. 2002. Social Learning. Pages 382-384 in Encyclopedia of Global Change. Oxford University Press.
- Alcamo, J., Kreileman, R. and Leemans R. 1996. Global models meet global policy. Global Environmental Change, 6 (4), 255-259.
- Walker, B., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J., Abel, N., Cumming, G., Janssen, M., Lebel, L., Norberg, J., Peterson, G.D., and Pritchard, R., 2002. Resilience management in socialecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology., 6 (1): 14. Online at http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14
- Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. 2003 (in press): Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines'. Global Environmental Change.
- Webler, T., Kastenholz, H. and Renn, O. 1995. Public participation in impact assessment: a social learning perspective. in Environment Impact Assessment Review, 15, 443-463.
- van Daalen, C. E., Thissen, W.A.H. and Berk. 1996. The Delft process: experiences with a dialogue between policy makers and global modellers. M.M. Global Environmental Change, 6 (4) 267-285.
Seminar 10: Vulnerability: results from integrated assessments
- Erasmus, B. F. N., A. S. van Jaarsveld, S. L. Chown, M. Kshatriya, and K. J. Wessels. 2002. Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Global Change Biology 8:679-693.
- AMAP. 1997. Arctic Pollution Issue: A State of the Arctic Environment Report. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. (selected section: pp. 159-169)
- Sala, O. E., F. S. Chapin, J. J. Armesto, E. Berlow, J. Bloomfield, R. Dirzo, E. Huber-Sanwald, L. F. Huenneke, R. B. Jackson, A. Kinzig, R. Leemans, D. M. Lodge, H. A. Mooney, M. Oesterheld, N. L. Poff, M. T. Sykes, B. H. Walker, M. Walker, and D. H. Wall. 2000. Biodiversity - Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287:1770-1774.
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- Luers, A. L., D. B. Lobell, L. S. Sklar, C. L. Addams, and P. A. Matson. 2003. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change 13:255-267.
- O'Brien, K., L. Sygna, and J. E. Haugen. 2003, in press. Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway. Climatic Change.
- Turner, B. L., P. Matson, J. J. McCarthy, R. W. Corell, L. Christensen, N. Eckley, G. Hovelsrud-Broda, J. X. Kasperson, R. E. Kasperson, A. Luers, M. L. Martello, S. Mathiesen, C. Polsky, A. Pulsipher, A. Schiller, and N. Tyler. 2003. Illustrating The Coupled Human-Environment System For Vulnerability Analysis: Three Case Studies. Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA 100:8080-8085.